It’s a bright and sunny Saturday here in central Maryland. By all accounts I should be outside cutting the grass or grilling up some thick cut of red meat while blaring a Kenny Chesney song in the background. But I’m not doing any of those things.
In fact, I’m currently in a dimly lit room of my basement staring back and forth between my computer screen and a much too difficult to read, will-surely-destroy-my-eyesite-by-the-time-I’m-30 magazine page informing me about the correlation between yards per point and offensive success.
It can only mean one thing.
That’s right college football fans. Call it Christmas in May, because today Phil Steele Magazine arrived in good old West Friendship, Maryland. Needless to say, this makes Adam a very happy young man.
Brian and I will of course have much more in lead-up to our interview with Phil Steele next week (to be posted here at the ITB website and on Itunes on Monday, June 8th), but for now I thought I’d drop some initial first impressions. Your ridiculously obsessive and personal questions are of course welcomed to these otherwise random notes. Enjoy!
Texas and Florida in the National Title. I know: Phil really went out on a limb here, didn’t he?
Notre Dame is Phil’s pick to make it to the Gator Bowl, to face off against Clemson (!?!)
Bradford, Tebow, and McCoy are Phil’s top three quarterbacks. CMU’s Dan LeFevour, Ole Miss’ Jevan Snead, Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick, and (here’s the shocker) Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet round out the top seven.
For the first time in which I can ever remember, Phil has included FCS players in his player rankings.
Phil’s Conference Rankings based on last year (in descending order): SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, MWC, ACC, Big 10, Big East, CUSA, IND, WAC, MAC, Sun Belt.
Phil says Illinois will be the most improved team in the country this year.
Surprise Team Top Five: 1) Penn State 2) Rutgers 3) Cal 4) Notre Dame 5) Illinois.
Preseason Top 10 you ask? Here we go: 1) Florida 2) Texas 3) USC 4) Oklahoma 5) Penn State 6) Mississippi 7) Notre Dame 8 ) Alabama 9) Cal 10) Ohio State.
Phil likes BYU to win the MWC, UTEP and Southern Miss in CUSA, Boise in the WAC (seven of his nine power rankings call for Boise to go undefeated), CMU and Ohio in the MAC, and Troy in the Sun Belt.
Florida has Phil’s highest +/- rating at 140.00. NMSU has his lowest at 90.80.
Phil has revised his experienced charts. Army and Navy and Air Force are no longer at the top on a yearly basis. This year’s most experienced team is Minnesota. Missouri is his least experienced team.
From the Turnover=Turnaround charts. Oklahoma, Florida, Buffalo, Wake, and Ohio State “going down?”. Washington St, Wyoming, Washington, North Texas, and Army “going up?”
Same two girls as always modeling bikinis. How old are those ads?
Lettermen Returning Indicator: Toldeo, UAB, and Stanford have an 89% chance of improved record. Navy, Missouri, and South Carolina have 82% chance of weaker or the same record.
Phil picks Georgia Tech to outrush Navy in 2009. Dammit.
Two congratulations to hand out, first to the Florida Gators for winning the BCS National Championship. My second congrats go out to my friend John Radcliff of the Mountainlair, he won his second In The Bleachers Bowl Bonanza title in three years edging out Tell Burke by one point. I will be in contact with all of those who won prizes.
A little bit of a sloppy game last night but that I expected when the teams have around a month off between their conference title games and the BCS title game. Both Tebow and Bradford had two interceptions, but Bradford’s came at a very bad time at the end of the second quarter.
Add to that the mistake Bob Stoops made not going for the field goal in the first quarter and there’s the 10 points Oklahoma needed to tie the game. If you want to get even more into it, the blocked FG would’ve won the Sooners the game. As I said in the Podcast, Florida’s edge on Special Teams was going to be the big factor in this game, and it turned out to be.
It was great to see a championship game live up to the hype. The game was still in doubt heading into the latter parts of the 4th quarter. Mr. Electric, Percy Harvin broke off a few long runs for the Gators and set them up for the winning score. I feel that’s the last we’ll see Harvin in a college setting.
The next questions surround the fact of how good was the Big 12. We heard all season how they were better than the SEC and have surpassed them in the conference rankings. All the Big 12 supports pointed to having 3 teams in the Top 10 with Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech.
Bowl season comes around and Oklahoma and Texas score the least points they did all year against their opponents, and Texas Tech puts up only 1 point more than their previous season low against Ole Miss. The other Big 12 South team Oklahoma State has 42 points put on them by Oregon. I think my assumption was right all along, the Big 12 was full of above average offenses, but below average defenses.
Overall the Big 12 won 4 bowl games against Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State. Only the Ohio State one is impressive, and even then, Texas was suppose to wipe them off the field. But they needed a late TD to win that game. Missouri needed overtime to beat Northwestern, and the Nebraska-Clemson game was very close.
Anyway, I was glad to see a competitive championship game and am sad to see a close to the 2008-09 season. We only have a little more than 8 months till the 2009-10 season kicks off.
To steal a quote from Colonel Sink right before the invasion of Europe; “Tonight is the night of nights”. The waiting is over as the BCS National Championship Game between Florida and Oklahoma will kick off from Miami, a little after 8pm EST on Fox.
A group of fans will go home from Miami dejected and disappointed, come tomorrow if they were caught crying on camera they will probably be ridiculed by Spencer in Friday’s Curious Index, especially if they are a Sooners fan.
I have already given my prediction on who I think will win; I think Florida has a decided advantage in the Special Teams aspect, I think their quick defensive line will not allow Bradford to sit in the pocket like he is use to, and I don’t think the Sooners will be able to stop the Gators. For the Sooners to win they have to establish the run to keep the Gators off balance and use their weapons at wide receiver and tight end to find holes in the Florida secondary. The Gators haven’t faced a passing attack like the Sooners this year so it will be a test for their secondary.
If you haven’t already got enough pregame material; below are some good previews to check out. Enjoy the game everyone, savor it because we don’t have another one for 9 months.
After 33 bowl games, several major holidays, and the saturated fat content of more double chocolate cookies than you’d probably care to remember, the biggest day of the college football year is almost upon us. Seems kinda anticlimactic, don’t it? I don’t know about you, but a part of me almost seems to care less about the matchup between Oklahoma and Florida in Thursday’s BCS National Title game. Sure, there’s the intrigue with Oklahoma’s key injuries, and yes, there is the potential storyline over what some are already calling a “split” national title, but as I look at a game like this I tend to wonder if it’ll really live up to its billing.
For those of you who listened to the show last night (and if you did not, you can catch it here) you know that I brought up my reservations on this game in a fairly incoherent manner. I apologize for that, but with the excess of medication I’ve been taking for an untimely viral infection in my sinus cavity I’ve been somewhat “loopy” the past few days. In a nutshell though my feelings boil down to this; will this game be nothing more than a continuation of what we’ve seen the past two seasons with an SEC team taking a non-SEC team to the woodshed? Or can “Big Game Bobby” Stoops and his Sooners, already a somewhat controversial pick to even be in this game, overcome a Florida team which was operating with what can only be described as scary precision by year’s end? I bring up this question - our final in our series of bowl previews - because frankly I don’t like the growing perception that this game is becoming irrelevant. That’s right I said it, irrelevant. Between those who constantly push the idea of SEC domination and those who assert that a playoff is the only way to go it increasingly feels like the BCS National Championship does not matter. And the fact that we’ve seen SEC teams dominate non-SEC teams (albeit the same Big 10 team) the last two years, coupled with the fact that the Sooners have lost their last two attempts at a BCS National Title, does little to ease my anxiety.
I’m not going to pretend to be unbiased in my hope for this game. I think Tim Tebow is the greatest thing ever but for as much as I like the guy I want Oklahoma to win thursday, or at the very least play competitively. I’ve just seen too much in the breakdown of competitive parody in each and every pro sport to want it any other way, and with a Florida win tonight my fear is that we’ll get back to this idea that anyone outside of the SEC (with the exception of USC) really does not matter when it comes to contending for a national title. Maybe this makes me a little paranoid, maybe this makes me slightly regionalistic in my outlook, but I actually like our system as it is, and frankly I don’t want it to change. But for that to happen we need good title games. We need the back-and-forth slugfest, the edge of your seat realization for the finale of four months of anticipation, debate, and controversy. In a nutshell we need the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, and we shouldn’t be afraid to say so.
So as I watch the game Thursday I’ll be hopeful -cautiously so, but hopeful - that what I am viewing will one day be looked upon as a classic. Naive? Maybe. But for college football’s greatest stage, should we really expect anything else?
With another Bowl Season in the books and a 1-6 record this season in those games, the Big Ten did not help silence its critics that said they are a conference on the way down. I am not here to add another 200 words on how terrible the Big Ten is, nor am I here to try and rationalize how they have gone 4-11 in the past two Bowl Seasons and are still the power they once were.
I come to show that the Big Ten is not as bad as many thing, but with a few improvements they might become a better conference. They have three of the top storied programs in their conference with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. All three teams are in the top 10 in all time wins.
First let’s dismiss the notion that there is not any speed in the conference. If you watched the Ohio State-Texas game last night, you saw that Ohio State has plenty of speed. Also, let’s forget the notion that the SEC has owned the Big Ten in bowl games the last few years. Yes, Ohio State has gotten blown out in the title games but just look at the past few years when the Big Ten and SEC has played in Bowl Games:
2008-2009
Outback Bowl - Iowa 21, South Carolina 10
Capital One Bowl - Georgia 24, Michigan State 12
2007-2008
Outback Bowl - Tennessee 21, Wisconsin 17
Capital One Bowl - Michigan 41, Florida 35
BCS Title Game - LSU 38, Ohio State 24
2006-2007
Outback Bowl - Penn State 20, Tennessee 10
Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 17, Arkansas 14
BCS Title Game - Florida 41, Ohio State 14
2005-2006
Outback Bowl - Florida 31, Iowa 24
Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 24, Auburn 10
2004-2005
Music City Bowl - Minnesota 20, Alabama 16
Outback Bowl - Georgia 24, Wisconsin 21
Capital One Bowl - Iowa 30, LSU 25
Your eyes do not deceive you, the Big Ten is 7-6 against the SEC in the past 5 years in bowl games.
A few things have hurt the Big Ten the past two years in bowl season. In 2007-08 with Ohio State playing in the Title game, the Rose Bowl placed second place Illinois in the Rose Bowl against USC just to keep the Big Ten-Pac Ten alignment going. That also hurt the rest of the conference because it bumped each team up a bowl game to play a harder opponent. Again in 2008-09 the Big Ten got two teams in BCS Bowl games, so it created lopsided games such as Kansas/Minnesota and many thought Northwestern/Missouri.
Also if you look at the Big Ten bowl alignments, they only have one game against an ACC opponent, the rest are against the Big 12, SEC, and Pac Ten. Last year there was one against a MAC opponent, but that is a rarity.
Now to get on how to improve this conference. I think the Big Ten needs to follow the lead of the Pac Ten. There have been rumors floating around for years that the Big Ten is trying to woo Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt…etc. Those teams aren’t coming anytime soon, and when you talk about Syracuse and Pitt, they are not going to leave the Big East because it is the best basketball conference in the country, and those two teams thrive on basketball.
If the powers to be in the Big Ten are dead set on keeping 11 teams, they need to add another conference game. Right now there are 8 conference games and 4 out of conference games. With the way teams schedule OOC games, they are going to go 3-1 or 4-0 which means they only need to go 2-6 or 3-5 in conference play to make a bowl. That could include teams, that in some years do not play either Ohio State or Michigan. If you aren’t going to add a 12th team to get the conference title game, add a 9th conference game and rotate each year the team you do not play.
This will get more deserving teams in those bowl games. Not just teams who beat up on 4 MAC/Conference USA/Sun Belt opponents, and that isn’t even counting the FCS teams that are on the schedule.
That’s what the conference has to do. Now it is up to the teams to start putting better schemes on the field which if you look, they are moving towards. The spread offense is working it way into the conference. Ohio State, Northwestern, Penn State, and Michigan all use it as a big part of their offense. And they are all having success with it. High School kids want to see points scored, not 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Once that happens, they will be playing against the spread more and be able to defend it more when the Big Ten teams play in the bowl games.
Like I said earlier, it is never as good as it seems, it is never as bad as it seems, reality falls somewhere in the middle. For the Big Ten their perception is at an all-time low, but with a few breaks, with a few adjustments they could be back to what they once were.
While it’s still yet to hit me that we’re only a few days away from having no more college football until the brief respite of spring camp, one point I will submit to you before this week’s National Championship game is the question of number two. That’s right, number two. In the wake of Utah’s upset over Alabama on Friday night (and, oh by the way, I guess that was kinda a big deal) it seems that a number of people suddenly want to make the argument that the Utes should grab at least a share of the national title. I think it’s a valid argument, and actually one I brought up on the podcast during our preview show a few weeks back. Yet for the amount of controversy that point is bound to create, one has to wonder about the potential mess of ranking the post-season Top 5. I mean c’mon, you’ve already got a PAC-10 crowd saying USC is the best team in the country, and you’ve also got the crowd of people who still feel like Texas was screwed out of the Title game via the Big XII tiebreak. And that’s not even taking into account the loser of this week’s national title, who could very well fall back on the argument of winning the most difficult conference in the country before losing to the best team in the country. Starting to catch my drift? If there are sectional differences of opinion in the college football landscape (and in all seriousness how can you say there are not?) than we are going to see them play out in the AP voting after this thing is all said in done. If nothing else it should provide an interesting prelude to the beginning of next year, as we’ll likely see the same five teams vying for Top 5 consideration.
The bowl games start tomorrow and with all of the competition already signed up, you cannot miss any games. To sign up, go to the Fun Office Pools’ website. If you haven’t already registered there, take a second and make a username with a password that is unique to only you.
This year’s contest will be a bit different than the last two years. This year you have to pick a winner for each game and assign a confidence factor to each game and those are the points you will accumulate if you win that pick.
Prizes
Prizes will be handed out for the people who finish in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th as laid out below. Remember to do the tiebreaker because that will break all ties for bowl games.
1st Place: $60 Dollar Gift Card to any of the stores listed here. 2nd Place: $35 Dollar Gift Card to any of the stores listed here. 3rd Place: $25 Dollar Gift Card to any of the stores listed here. 4th Place: A copy of one of the following books, The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, Sports Illustrated: The College Football Book, or The Maisel Report: College Football’s Most Overrated and Underrated Players, Coaches, Teams, and Traditions.
Memphis 6-6 (4-4), 2nd Conference USA East
vs South Florida 7-5 (2-5), 6th Big East
Saturday December 20, 2008 4:30 pm EST ESPN2
The South Florida Bulls were my pick to win the Big East this year. And it looked like a good pick as they started the year 5-0 with a win over Kansas. But they went 2-5 in their last 7 games and their offense went from dangerous to impotent. The Bulls have to be one of the more disappointing teams in 2008.
Matt Grothe led the Bulls in both passing and rushing for the 3rd straight year, but his touchdown to interception ratio has not improved as he had 15 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Defensive end George Selvie is someone the Tigers will have to keep two men on if they want to pass the ball. His production has gone down dramatically from last year (14.5 sacks to 5.5 sacks), but he is still a force to be reckon with.
Memphis is one of the Nation’s best rushing teams which will be tough going up against a South Florida defense that only gives up 97 ypg on the ground. The Tigers are led by Curtis Steele’s 1175 yards on the ground and 7 touchdowns. Steele’s 5.7 yards per carry makes it easier for Memphis to move the sticks. Overall, Memphis has a balanced attack but a bulk of their big statical games came against lesser opponents such as Nicholls State and Arkansas State.
If you look at one of South Florida’s big win, they were able to temper Connecticut who has one of the best rushers in the country. This should be a tough one for Memphis, and a good end of the season win for the Bulls to salvage a less than stellar season.
Colorado State 6-6 (4-4), 5th Mountain West
vs Fresno State 7-5 (4-4), 5th Western Athletic
Saturday December 20, 2008 2:30 pm EST ESPN
The Rams and the Bulldogs use to be old rivals in the WAC, but 10 years ago Colorado State decided to move over to the Mountain West. The New Mexico Bowl will be one settling point between the two conferences as to which one is the best Non-BCS Conference.
Fresno State started off the year good with a now impressive win at Rutgers, only to fall one week later by 3 points to Wisconsin at home. The Bulldogs are a balanced team on offense, but when you look at their defensive numbers, you will see that they are very vulnerable against the pass.
Senior Tom Brandstater did not have the year many thought he would, but still put up some nice numbers throwing for 17 touchdowns and 2478 yards. The Bulldogs have three people in the backfield that can hurt you. Anthony Harden, Lonyae Miller, and Ryan Mathews all ran for over 599 yards and combined for 15 touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how Fresno State bounces back after losing their last game 62-10 to Boise State.
Colorado State has a one two punch at QB and WR of Billy Farris and Rashaun Greer. Farris has thrown for 17 touchdowns and 2600 yards while Greer has been on the receiving end of over 1000 of those yards and 2 touchdowns. Farris’ favorite target close to the goalline is Dion Morton who has 10 touchdown catches. In the backfield Gartrell Johnson has close to 1200 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns.
The Rams defensively do not put much pressure on the quarterback as they have only registered 9 sacks this year, the least in the FBS. On the flip side the Bulldogs’ secondary has only intercepted a total of 4 passes this season, the least in the FBS. If you like offense, watch this game. Both teams will be able to move up and down at will (as you will see from the Tale of the Tape).
Tale of the Tape
Colorado State Offense - 377 ypg, 247 ypg passing, 129 ypg rushing Defense - 407 ypg, 222 ypg passing, 185 ypg rushing Quality Wins versus Bowl Teams - Houston
Fresno State Offense - 383 ypg, 206 ypg passing, 177 ypg rushing Defense - 393 ypg, 196 ypg passing, 197 ypg rushing Quality Wins versus Bowl Teams - Rutgers
Wake Forest 7-5 (4-4), 3rd ACC Atlantic Division
vs Navy 8-4, Independent
Saturday, December 20 11am ESPN
Back on September 27th, Navy beat Wake Forest 24-17. The Inaugural EagleBank Bowl will have a rematch of that game since Maryland was unable to fulfill this spot due to the fact that their players have finals this week. Wake Forest quarterback, Riley Skinner had one of his worst games of his career that day against Navy. He threw four interceptions, but the fact that the Demon Deacons could only muster 43 yards on the ground, did not help him any.
Navy on the other hand 292 yards on the ground and a healthy Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who ran for two touchdowns that day. Although Kaipo came back against Army, one has to think that he is still a bit banged up and might not be as effective as he was early in the season.
In my opinion, Wake Forest peaked early in the season with their win against Florida State. The ACC really didn’t have any powerful offenses or strong rushing games like Navy. Riley Skinner is going to have to have a good game and take advantage of a weaker Midshipmen secondary. Last game he had 4 INTs (he only had 3 more the rest of the season) and they only lost by 7. Close game, and I am giving the edge to the Deacons.
If you missed a show or you want the latest In The Bleachers Podcast click on the player below.
In the Bleachers podcasts are one of the Equatorial Republic of Blogfrica’s best-kept secrets - EDSBS
Doing on-air at a Top 40 station, you want to put a hole in your head listening to the same song 3x a day. ITB's podcasts probably save my life. - MizzouRAH
In The Bleachers produces a truly excellent podcast week in, week out, and without fail. Congratulations, guys. Keep it up. - Rocky Top Talk
Where To Find Us
Use the RSS Feeds to subscribe to the blog and the Feedburner to subscribe to the podcast.
Interested in finding the best sports betting sportsbooks online? Try out Sportsbetting3.com. For NFL football, the best NFL betting can be found at Bet-on-the-NFL.com. Fans of Blackjack and Slots will love the selection of online casinos at Jaxcasinos.com
Brian Sakowski is a college football nut. He is a Penn State fan, but loves to talk about college football with anyone and everyone! This blog is the home of the longest running general college football podcast on the internet.
For those of you who listened to the show last night (and if you did not, 
While it’s still yet to hit me that we’re only a few days away from having no more college football until the brief respite of spring camp, one point I will submit to you before this week’s National Championship game is the question of number two. That’s right, number two. In the wake of Utah’s upset over Alabama on Friday night (and, oh by the way, 
