For some of you who were wondering, and also for those of you who weren’t, yes I am still alive. Thanks to Adam for dropping in his 2 cents here and there along the way while I recover from real life duties and real life injuries that included a separated shoulder. It’s hell turning 30. Speaking of injuries, I’d like to wish Spencer Hall from EDSBS a quick and speedy recovery as he hurt his back from a pull up accident. No word on if those pull ups were in attempt of actual exercise or to get the last beer off the top shelf.

Special thanks to Dr. Montgomery for taking good care of me!

Getting to the world of college football; as Adam mentioned, the bible of college football otherwise known as Phil Steele’s College Football Preview will be out in stores on June 9th. If you have never heard of Phil Steele, you must live under a rock because his magazine is THE BEST preview magazine and it is a must have for all statistical junkies like myself. Nothing is confirmed yet but hopefully we will have Mr. Steele joining us on a podcast in the near future.

Speaking of Adam, be sure to head over to GoMids to check out some of his latest work. Yesterday he got to talk to Navy’s defensive coordinator Buddy Green and the turnaround in his defense from the 2007 season to the 2008 season.

In the news of transfer quarterbacks not named Greg Paulus, our friends over at Boiled Sports have posted that former Miami Hurricanes quarterback Robert Marve will choose the Boilers over Tennessee. Joel at Rocky Top Talk is not as confident that Marve will pick the Vols, but he is not ready to throw in the towel just yet. The official announcement will come this Friday.

The College Football Cafeteria has an interesting piece about my favorite college football coach, Joe Paterno. Recently Paterno went on record saying that the Big Ten needs to get a 12th team in order to have a conference championship game and stay relevant in the voters minds later in the season. Yes this is all true, but I really believe the Big Ten brass is still holding onto a pipe dream that Notre Dame will some day join the conference, and with the new deal that they just signed with NBC a year ago, I do not see that happening anytime soon.

On second thought his release is a bit wide

Other schools such as Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers were also bounced around. You all know how I feel about the Big Ten, but when you look at Big East basketball, really only the ACC rivals it. I cannot see either Pittsburgh or Syracuse leaving the Big East since they are such strong basketball schools to move to the Big Ten. Rutgers might be a good idea if they are looking for a team, but does the Big Ten, which still is having trouble accepting Penn State because of their Eastern Ties, want to bring in a school that is even further east? I really think not.

The Heisman Pundit is back writing again and I could not help but get a chuckle from his new one where he discusses how Tim Tebow is working on his throwing motion for the NFL. Here is probably THE best player of the past two seasons messing with his throwing motion. Why fix what isn’t broke? I can’t exactly see Urban Meyer jumping up and down at the possibility of Tebow starting the season trying the work out the new kinks of throwing the ball differently.

Finally it is never too early for Preseason Polls right? Well, yes it is too early, but they are fun to debate. Mark Schlabach over at ESPN puts out his 3rd version (to date) of the 2009 Preseason Poll. I do have a few critiques…in my opinion, no Big Ten team should be ranked in the top 10. They ALL have way too many holes to fill. My other gripe is with Virgina Tech, why all the love for Tyrod Taylor? I just don’t see it and I do not see the Hokies finishing higher than 15th this year.

Sports Illustrated’s Cory McCartney recently revealed his list of “players poised to become college football’s next household names.” Nice list Cory, but you weren’t exactly going out on a limb in selecting guys like Baylor’s Robert Griffin or Michigan’s Brandon Minor now, were you? Here’s a few more under-the-radar names (and some familiar faces too) to add to the ridiculously early preseason hype list.  

QB Ricky Dobbs, Navy- Ask any Navy fan and they’ll tell you there is just something special about the junior-to-be quarterback. While maybe not the most technically sounds Navy quarterback to command the option offense in recent years, Dobbs shined in the few opportunities he had to play in 2008, sparking Navy’s unthinkable comeback against Temple while powering the Mids past SMU and Northern Illinois. He’s a physical runner inside who isn’t afraid to take on linebackers, while his arm strength and accuracy in the passing game give Navy’s run heavy offense another dimension. If he can continue his progress in learning the option reads he should be in for a monster year in 2009.

RB Joe Martinek, Rutgers- It may be all too easy for some fans and media members to stereotype the 6-foot, 215-pound redshirt sophomore as your run-of-the-mill ‘fullback’, but New Jersey’s all-time leader in prep rushing yards was among the leaders that sparked the Scarlet Knight resurgence during the second half of last season. Not just a bruiser, Martinek averaged 5.3 yards per rush in limited duty last season, and recently ran for 124 yards on just 18 carries in a Rutgers spring scrimmage. He’s the most complete rusher on the Scarlet Knight roster and despite the likelihood of having the split carries with two other backs should earn the starting job come September.

WRs David Nelson/Riley Cooper, Florida- On a team known for a battering ram quarterback and the dangerous presence of a bunch of shifty “little guys” who allegedly run in the 4.2 range, it’s not hard to see why the 6′5” David Nelson and the 6′3” Riley Cooper are often overshadowed when one begins a conversation of the Gator offense. But don’t overlook either of these receivers, as both return for their senior seasons in 2009. Nelson and Cooper combined for just 30 catches a year ago, but the two seniors also sported eight touchdown grabs between them. With Tim Tebow looking to refine his passing game and Percy Harvin moving on to the NFL expect Urban Meyer’s offense to look more to their senior leaders on the outside next season.

RB Jewell Hampton, Iowa- Replacing Shonne Greene is not going to be easy, but the Hawkeyes do have a proven role-player from last year’s squad ready to step in full-time in sophomore running back Jewell Hampton. While undersized at only five-foot, nine inches tall, Hampton runs with deceptive lower body strength and a tremendous burst which make him difficult for defenders to tackle. He finished last year with seven rushing touchdowns in limited duty, and should be the go-to playmaker for the Iowa offense next year.

FS Harrison Smith, Notre Dame- Let’s just get this out of the way; Harrison ‘Hayseed’ Smith was good as a “hybrid” defender in Notre Dame’s defense last year, but this guy is way too athletic to just be a situational player. The fact that he recorded 57 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and seven passes defended was certainly impressive given the fact that he wasn’t playing his natural safety position, making this year’s move to free safety all the more conducive to his continued success. He should have no trouble reminding Irish fans of a bigger and more athletic version of former Domer standout Tom Zbikowski.

WR McKay Jacobson, BYU- Perhaps as if to follow in the footsteps of another impact receiver at BYU who took his two year mission trip for the LDS church following a fantastic freshmen campaign, Jacobson returns to Provo this season just as Austin Collie departs for the NFL. BYU already has an All-American tight end candidate in Dennis Pitta, a fact which should allow the 5′11” Jacobson (who is among the fastest players on BYU’s roster) to flourish as an immediate weapon for returning quarterback Max Hall. Jacobson averaged 19.5 yards a catch as a freshmen in 2006, and despite coming off of his mission trip should be poised to put up big numbers in 2009.

LB Malcolm Smith, USC- The Trojans lose arguably one of the best linebacking corps in Pac-10 history with the departures of Brian Cushing, Ray Mauluaga, and Clay Matthews, but a new generation of USC linebackers looks primed to step up. A former running back, Smith should fill in nicely as the weakside ‘backer in USC’s defense, as the 6′2” junior possesses outstanding athleticism and lateral quickness which make him a playmaker against the run and the pass. He has been the most noticeable standout thus far for USC’s defense in spring ball, and should continue his success into the season. 

QB Andy Schmitt, Eastern Michigan- The Eagle signal caller has been one of the MAC’s best kept secrets for some time, but despite going into his senior season in 2009 has never garnered much attention outside of Ypsilanti. That all should change come September, as Schmitt returns fully healthy to lead new head coach Ron English’s EMU offense. Schmitt is an elite athlete for his size and one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the ranks of the non-BCS, and could be the difference between another losing season and a breakthrough campaign for the Eagles.

QB Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU- It’s not easy coming into an FBS school and starting at quarterback as a true freshmen, which is exactly what June Jones’ rookie signal caller found out last year in the Mustangs’ disastrous 1-11 campaign. Despite his struggles Mitchell still completed 56% of his passes for over 3000 yards a season ago, and with receivers Alderick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders back in 2009 Mithcell should only get better. With a season of June Jones’ run-and-shoot system under their belts expect Mitchell and the Mustang offense to put up Hawaii like numbers in 2009.

WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M- The Big 12 South loses its most high profile target in Michael Crabtree to the NFL, but look for another physical and athletically gifted wideout to step out of the Lone Star state in A&M’s Fuller. He was a Honorable Mention All-Big 12 selection as a true freshmen a season ago, and set an Aggie receiving record with nine touchdowns on the year. At 6′4” he has the frame to be an elite red zone threat, while the continued progression of quarterback Jerrod Johnson under Mike Sherman’s guidance should lead Fuller to an even better sophomore season.

The 2008 season was one that many Wolverine fans want to forget. The start of the year was very promising, when Michigan defeated Florida in the Capital One Bowl, sending their head coach Lloyd Carr out as a winner. But after that moment, everything snowballed downhill.

Rich Rodriquez came into Ann Arbor, as well as the baggage from a turmoil filled divorce with his former school, and alma mater, West Virginia. Rodriquez began making enemies not only at other schools, but also his own as he completely changed the offense and defense.

All of that could be brushed aside with a few wins, but the Wolverines started the season with a home loss to Utah. Next week was a bit better with a win over Miami (OH), but that was 1 of 3 total wins that the Wolverine fans would see. Overall, Michigan went 3-9 and in the middle part of the season rode a 5 game losing streak. It was all capped off with another loss to their rival Ohio State, in embarrassing fashion, and Rodriquez’s comments that Michigan fans need to “Get a Life”.

Now enter into the 2009 season where hope is aplenty. Another recruiting class under the belt of Rodriquez, and two new quarterbacks come into Ann Arbor ready to revitalize this program. Both freshman, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, are ready to do battle for the starting quarterback job in 2009. With Steven Threet gone the way of a transfer andNick Sheridan out injured; it will be either Forcier or Robinson under center when the season starts in September.

Michigan had their spring game recently and one would have to think that Forcier has the upper hand; only because he has a spring practice under his belt and Robinson will not be enrolled till this summer. Word from the spring game shows a lot of optimism about the offense, but does that say much for a team that was anemic at best last season.

I can understand the excitement that Wolverine fans are having, but they have to be realistic. They did not exactly have the best offensive line nor defense last year. And if they expect to have a running quarterback, they better hope that Forcier and Robinson are durable enough to take the physical abuse that they will get in the Big Ten.

Saying that I expect the Wolverines to go bowling again this season. With the way the Big Ten is shaping up, no team is a clear cut favorite and a lot of the top teams have huge holes to fill, I think that a 6 or 7 win season is within reach for Michigan this season, but not a Big Ten title.

What does Ron Zook do with Juice Williams?

Juice Williams is a great talent at quarterback for the Illini, but he just can’t seem to take that step to elite status. In his sophomore year he was so inconsistent that Ron Zook actually pulled him in some games in favor of Eddie McGee. It was the same year that Illinois played in the Rose Bowl.

Last season Williams kept a firm grasp on the starting job, but could not duplicate the success that the team had in 2007. Williams has always been a dual threat both with his arm and feet, but he is best served when Zook does not have to rely on him throwing the ball to win the game.

Juice is very erratic with his pass accuracy and in 10 games where he has attempted 30 or more passes, the Illni’s record is an eye popping 1-9. I don’t think that it is the attempts that are hurting him, it is the scheme. Zook needs to roll out Williams so he has that pass-run option. Keep the patterns short and simple, and you will see the Illinois offense succeed.

Is there hope for Michigan fans this year?

Anything has to be better for Wolverine fans who saw their team go 3-9 and miss a bowl game for the first time in 34 seasons. Most of the fans I talk to have high hopes for incoming freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. All I say to them is that I hope he is made of steel.

With Steven Threet transferring and Nick Sheridan suffering a leg injury in spring practice, Forcier is now the #1 quarterback by default. In the fall he will be joined by fellow true freshman Denard Robinson, but it seems for now that it is Tate’s job to lose.

It is going to take a few years for Rich Rodriquez to get his players in place for his system, but will the Michigan faithful wait that long. Defensively they should get a little better, but that is not enough in my opinion. They are very green at the skilled positions on offense, and their offensive line isn’t exactly stellar. Luckily for the Wolverines, the Big Ten will be down a little this year so they should be able to win more than 3 games this year.

Can Purdue and Wisconsin rebound from disappointing 2008 seasons?

Last year many thought that the Wisconsin Badgers were one of the sleeper teams that could rise up and win the Big Ten. Well we found out that you cannot win the Big Ten without a defense and a quarterback, and now with PJ Hill Jr gone, you can add running back to that list.

The Badgers were once a team with a strong offensive line and a solid, but not spectacular quarterback. They come into this year with the same questions (as last year) at quarterback, will it be Dustin Sherer? Can John Clay be an every down back now that Hill is gone?

The Badgers have a VERY young offensive line with a lot of inexperience, which doesn’t bode well for developing quarterbacks. I expect a lot of the same struggles for the Badgers as last year; as well as a middle of the pack Big Ten finish.

Purdue didn’t have quite the same high expectations, but having Curtis Painter come back for his senior season was suppose to solidify their offense. But in Joe Tiller’s last season, Painter went on to have a very lack luster senior season, and now it is up to Joey Elliott and Justin Siller to duke it out for for the starting job.

Also gone is running back Kory Sheets but hopefully replacing him is senior Jaycen Taylor who has some experience for the Boilermakers. Taylor missed all of last season after tearing his ACL in preseason practice.

Besides the defensive ends and secondary, the Boilermakers are going to have a new look come 2009, that includes the head coach Danny Hope. Unfortunately for Purdue fans, this program will take a few more steps back before it breaks into the upper half of the Big Ten.

Will Ohio State be able to reload enough to go to its 5th straight BCS Bowl game, and 7th in 8 years?

Yeah you read that correct, Ohio State has gone to a BCS Bowl game 6 times out of the last 7 years, a feat that is pretty impressive if you ask me. Coming into 2009, however, they have to replace a lot of fire power on offense; as well as most of their offensive line, secondary, and linebackers.

Their quarterback situation with Terrelle Pryor, is locked up for the next two years at least, but Beanie Wells is gone…and so are Brian Robiskie and Hartline. Potentially it could be a problem in Pryor’s development if he doesn’t find receivers to throw to, and expect him to take more of the load running the ball also.

What the Buckeyes’ have going for them is their stellar recruiting. They have been in the top 10 each of the past few years, and Coach Tressel made a point last year to go out and recruit a ton of stud linemen. It’ll be up to him and his staff to quickly develop this talent to become a Big Ten contender.

The beginning of the season could be a little rocky; particularly the USC game, but with the way the Big Ten looks to be shaping up in 2009, there is no reason why the Buckeyes can’t finish on top of the Big Ten or even high enough in the BCS Standings to warrant another BCS Bowl invite.

Does the Big Ten have any legitimate National Title contenders this season?

For those who read the blog regularly, you know I am a Big Ten fan…so it might mean a little more when I answer this question with an emphatic NO!

Due to the fact that the Big Ten has taken some huge public relation hits the past 3 seasons, for any team in this conference to go to the BCS Title game, they would have to be undefeated. Right now, I cannot say that any team in this conference is completely enough on both sides of the bowl to go through the season unscathed.

I’ve talked about Ohio State’s issues; last year’s champion Penn State will be replacing 3 wide receivers, 4 offensive linemen, most of their secondary, and two All-American defensive ends. Michigan is 2 to 3 years away from contending, Minnesota has too many questions on defense, Michigan State has too many questions on offense (replacing Hoyer and Ringer), and Iowa doesn’t have the consistency at quarterback.

I expect another year of the pundits making fun of the Big Ten for not being elite anymore. Meanwhile it might be best for the conference to only get 1 team in the BCS Bowls. That way they match up better down the line and restore some of the image they lost.

2009 is going to be an interesting season in the Big Ten. I expect the champion to have at least 2 conference losses, and it could be a year where a Minnesota or Michigan State finally break through and win the Big Ten. For their sake, however, they better hope USC is in the BCS Title game.

Big Ten Spring Game Dates
Illinois (April 25)
Indiana (April 18)
Iowa (April 18)
Michigan (April 11)
Michigan State (April 25)
Minnesota (April 25)
Northwestern (April 25)
Ohio State (April 25)
Penn State (April 25)
Purdue (April 18)
Wisconsin (April 18)

I hate doing this. I really do. But considering giving ridiculously early preseason “lookaheads” is all the rage these days, I thought I might as well share my Top 10 coming out of 2008 and going into 2009. Keep in mind we still have eight months to go before the start of next season, and between spring ball, a semester without football, and fall camp a lot can happen. Also, don’t forget that some of these rankings are contingent on big name stars coming back for another season, like Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford or USC’s Mark Sanchez. Still, here’s where some of the nation’s top teams figure to fall going into the long, slow thaw of winter.

1) Florida-Hey, it’s not like I wouldn’t like to be contrarian here, but fresh off a National Title this team is just scary good and only figures to get better. Percy Harvin moves on to the NFL from the offense but the unit isn’t short on experience or playmakers, with Jeffery Demps and Chris Rainey waiting in the wings. The defense should be stacked - with or without Brandon Spikes- and you know the coaching staff won’t have any off days with Urban Meyer at the helm. All of this would make for a Top 5 team at least, but when you factor in the return of one of the greatest college football players ever, well, now it just starts to become unfair.

2) Texas-The team that many thought should be playing for a National Title this year may very well find itself playing for one in 2009, as the return of QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, and four of five starting offensive linemen make Texas’ explosive offensive attack arguably the best in the Big XII. Losing stud DE Brian Orakpo hurts, but the return of LB’s Sergio Kindle and Rodderick Muckelroy leave the Longhorn’s no shortage of talent on Will Muschamp’s defense. The secondary - young and inconsistent at times in 2008 -  should be much improved.

3) Alabama-It may be tempting to drop the Crimson Tide a few spots when you consider just how poorly they played without soon-to-be NFL bound left tackle Andre Smith in the Sugar Bowl, but remember that as a hole this team was remarkably young this past season. Losing Logan Coffee and John Parker Wilson hurt on offense, but the majority of the defense will be back as will emerging playmakers Mark Ingram at running back and Julio Jones at wide receiver. If this team can find a capable quarterback they look like the favorite in the SEC West.

4) Oklahoma-We’ll know by Thursday whether or not Sam Bradford is coming back or not, but in either case the Sooners should return a strong defense anchored by nine returning starters. The return of Ryan Reynolds (injured against Texas) at linebacker should bolster the unit, and even with the losses on the offense line and skill positions there is enough talent in the pipe to keep this team in the hunt for a Big XII and National Title.

5) USC-I know, I know. East Coast bias, right? Wrong. I like USC to make it back to a BCS bowl in 2009, but given the fact that they’re going to have to replace six of their starting front seven on defense gives me cause for concern, especially considering their recent history of midseason PAC-10 hiccups. This might be the most talented team in the country, but if anything college football has shown us that experience trumps talent with the new 12-game schedule format.

6) Georgia Tech- Leave it to a longtime Navy fan to go out on a limb on this one. I know Georgia Tech was handled in the Peach Bowl and that ranking them above the LSU Tigers may seem blasphemous to our friends in SEC country, but consider for a moment that Johnson was working with an offense built primarily from freshmen and sophomores recruited for a radically different system. The last time he did that - 2002 at Navy- his team went 2-10 his first year but came around to finish 8-5 in 2003. Even if the defense isn’t as good as it was in 2008 I don’t see any reason to expect that Johnson’s offense won’t be incredibly more productive in 2009, making them the ACC favorite.

7) LSU-Settle down Tiger fans, I did not forget you. Had QB Jordan Jefferson and the Tigers played the rest of the 2008 season like they did in the 2008 Peach Bowl we may have had a different matchup in the SEC Title game, but even the 38-3 stomping of Georgia Tech is not enough for me to overlook the painful inconsistency of Les Miles’ team in 2008. I like the Tiger offense moving forward under Jefferson, but a likely overhaul of the front seven on defense keeps me skeptical.

8 ) Ohio State-I know some analysts are already drinking the Terrelle Pryor cool-aid, but the Buckeyes do suffer some pretty significant personnel losses going into next season. Chris Wells and Brian Robiskie depart, and joining them may be fellow wideout Brian Hartline. Defensively the Buckeyes will have to retool, and despite the fact that they’ve replaced NFL talent in the past I think they struggle moving forward without all everything linebacker James Laurinaitis. Still, this looks like the Big 10’s best team heading into 2009.

9) Oklahoma State-Here’s a comparison for you: How about the Cowboys as next year’s version of the 2008 Red Raiders? The defense may struggle, but with all the playmakers back on offense this could end up being a team which just outscores its opponents more often than not. Quarterback Zach Robinson and wideout Dez Bryant are legitimate Heisman darkhorses.

10) Boise State-I don’t know if Boise State is really the tenth best team going into next season (ok, so I know they’re not) but I do think they represent the best shot of a non-automatic qualifier getting to a BCS bowl game in 2009, which in and of itself deserves mention on a list like this. This season’s freshmen sensation Kellen Moore returns at quarterback to direct an explosive offense which features several other young but talented skill position players.

Others to Consider:Virginia Tech, Penn State, Ole Miss, Kansas, Notre (gasp!) Dame

With another Bowl Season in the books and a 1-6 record this season in those games, the Big Ten did not help silence its critics that said they are a conference on the way down. I am not here to add another 200 words on how terrible the Big Ten is, nor am I here to try and rationalize how they have gone 4-11 in the past two Bowl Seasons and are still the power they once were.

I come to show that the Big Ten is not as bad as many thing, but with a few improvements they might become a better conference. They have three of the top storied programs in their conference with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. All three teams are in the top 10 in all time wins.

First let’s dismiss the notion that there is not any speed in the conference. If you watched the Ohio State-Texas game last night, you saw that Ohio State has plenty of speed. Also, let’s forget the notion that the SEC has owned the Big Ten in bowl games the last few years. Yes, Ohio State has gotten blown out in the title games but just look at the past few years when the Big Ten and SEC has played in Bowl Games:

2008-2009
Outback Bowl - Iowa 21, South Carolina 10
Capital One Bowl - Georgia 24, Michigan State 12

2007-2008
Outback Bowl - Tennessee 21, Wisconsin 17
Capital One Bowl - Michigan 41, Florida 35
BCS Title Game - LSU 38, Ohio State 24

2006-2007
Outback Bowl - Penn State 20, Tennessee 10
Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 17, Arkansas 14
BCS Title Game - Florida 41, Ohio State 14

2005-2006
Outback Bowl - Florida 31, Iowa 24
Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 24, Auburn 10

2004-2005
Music City Bowl - Minnesota 20, Alabama 16
Outback Bowl - Georgia 24, Wisconsin 21
Capital One Bowl - Iowa 30, LSU 25

Your eyes do not deceive you, the Big Ten is 7-6 against the SEC in the past 5 years in bowl games.

A few things have hurt the Big Ten the past two years in bowl season. In 2007-08 with Ohio State playing in the Title game, the Rose Bowl placed second place Illinois in the Rose Bowl against USC just to keep the Big Ten-Pac Ten alignment going. That also hurt the rest of the conference because it bumped each team up a bowl game to play a harder opponent. Again in 2008-09 the Big Ten got two teams in BCS Bowl games, so it created lopsided games such as Kansas/Minnesota and many thought Northwestern/Missouri.

Also if you look at the Big Ten bowl alignments, they only have one game against an ACC opponent, the rest are against the Big 12, SEC, and Pac Ten. Last year there was one against a MAC opponent, but that is a rarity.

Now to get on how to improve this conference. I think the Big Ten needs to follow the lead of the Pac Ten. There have been rumors floating around for years that the Big Ten is trying to woo Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt…etc. Those teams aren’t coming anytime soon, and when you talk about Syracuse and Pitt, they are not going to leave the Big East because it is the best basketball conference in the country, and those two teams thrive on basketball.

If the powers to be in the Big Ten are dead set on keeping 11 teams, they need to add another conference game. Right now there are 8 conference games and 4 out of conference games. With the way teams schedule OOC games, they are going to go 3-1 or 4-0 which means they only need to go 2-6 or 3-5 in conference play to make a bowl. That could include teams, that in some years do not play either Ohio State or Michigan. If you aren’t going to add a 12th team to get the conference title game, add a 9th conference game and rotate each year the team you do not play.

This will get more deserving teams in those bowl games. Not just teams who beat up on 4 MAC/Conference USA/Sun Belt opponents, and that isn’t even counting the FCS teams that are on the schedule.

That’s what the conference has to do. Now it is up to the teams to start putting better schemes on the field which if you look, they are moving towards. The spread offense is working it way into the conference. Ohio State, Northwestern, Penn State, and Michigan all use it as a big part of their offense. And they are all having success with it. High School kids want to see points scored, not 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Once that happens, they will be playing against the spread more and be able to defend it more when the Big Ten teams play in the bowl games.

Like I said earlier, it is never as good as it seems, it is never as bad as it seems, reality falls somewhere in the middle. For the Big Ten their perception is at an all-time low, but with a few breaks, with a few adjustments they could be back to what they once were.

I did a bit of digging into the In The Bleachers archives to find out how I did last year. My end of the year record in 2007 was 67-22, giving me a 75% winning percentage. Right now I am 61-22 in 2008, which means I have to go perfect this week to match my record of last season.

It’s Trophy Week in the Big Ten. Six of the eight games have a trophy at stake, the two that don’t are Wisconsin against Cal Poly…and The Game between Ohio State and Michigan which doesn’t need a trophy. The Big Ten title is still up for grabs and Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State all have a chance at it. So let’s get at the games…

Michigan at Ohio State - ABC 12pm - Where or where has The Game gone? The last two years it seemed as if this game was for the Big Ten title, now it is just another game. On paper, I don’t know how anyone can realistically pick Michigan, but these are rivalry games so you never know. Ohio State is stronger on both sides of the ball while the Wolverines are bruised, battered, and have no confidence. Only in a dream world will Michigan win this game. Ohio State will win this game easy, shutting down the Wolverines’ offense and they will sit back and watch the Penn State-Michigan State game, hoping for a Spartans victory. Ohio State 37-7

Cal Poly at Wisconsin - 3:30pm - The Badgers got their sixth win and some much needed confidence coming back from a double digit halftime deficit against Minnesota. Dustin Shearer had a great game last week, protecting the ball and making the needed throws. He took a lot of pressure off of the running game. Their opponents, Cal Poly, will be no push over. The Mustangs are 8-1, with their only loss coming to Montana. They have a balanced attack running and throwing the ball. Offensively, they’ve scored over 400 points this year, but all against FCS opponents. The Mustangs will get their eyes opened a bit this week, but still make the game competitive. Wisconsin 35-17

Indiana at Purdue - ESPN2 12pm - The Joe Tiller Farewell Tour makes its final stop, where it all began, Ross-Ade Stadium , West Lafayette, Indiana. The winner of this game will get the Old Oaken Bucket, but to the Purdue faithful, I am sure that is secondary to sending Tiller out a winner. Last season, Indiana won on a late field goal to make them bowl eligible for the first time since 1993. Both teams have identical records 3-9 overall and 1-6 in the conference, but I think Purdue is the better team overall. Indiana hung with Penn State for a half last week, but that was more of a matter of the Nittany Lions sputtering, than Indiana playing well. It’ll be an emotional day and I believe Purdue sends its coach out in style. Purdue 28-20

Illinois at Northwestern - 3:30pm - The winner of this game will get the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk. The Illini are a team that I can’t quite get a grasp on. They had early season losses to both Missouri and Penn State, but you could tell that this team was talented and could be in the upper half of the Big Ten. Now in their final game, this is a must win game or the Illini do not go bowling. Northwestern has won 4 of the last 5 in this series and has a chance to finish with a 9 win season. You have to hand it to Pat Fitzgerald and his staff for the job they have done this season. I went against the Wildcats last week against Michigan, because I thought the Wolverines were turning it around. Illinois lost their last game against Western Michigan. I am going with the Wildcats in this one. I haven’t given them much credit this season, and the Illini have burnt me more often than not. Northwestern 28-24

Iowa at Minnesota - Big Ten Network 7pm - This is game with two teams going in opposite directions. Iowa has been playing great ball as of late winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Gophers on the other hand come into the game losing 3 straight games. Last week they totally fell apart in the second half against Wisconsin and lost that game. Ricky Stanzi has really become a consistant person behind center for Iowa and that is helping to take the pressure off of Shonn Greene. Minnesota will get a lift getting Eric Decker back in the lineup but I don’t think that will be enough to ensure a victory. Iowa has won six of the past seven meetings in the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, a pig statue, and they will walk away Saturday winning 7 of the last 8. The Hawkeyes defense will be too tough for the Gophers to handle. Iowa 21-12

Michigan State at Penn State - ABC 3:30pm - The Spartans should know their fate by kickoff. If Michigan can pull the improbable upset of Ohio State, the Spartans just need to beat the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten Title. Penn State on the other hand just has to win this game and they will win their 3rd Big Ten title overall, their second since 2005. Penn State has had a knack for starting out slow the second half of the season and they cannot do that again this week against Michigan State. The Spartans have a solid rushing attack and a defense that is very underrated in the Big Ten. Penn State’s defense has picked it up in past weeks, but their offense has taken steps back from earlier this year. Remember last season, the Spartans came back from a 17 point 3rd quarter deficit to win the game. This is going to be a close game, I feel that Penn State has the talent edge, but my gut feeling is that they will start out slow again. The emotions of Senior Day and maybe some nerves will be the cause. The Spartans always give them a game, and I think they pull the upset this week, win the Land Grant Trophy, and ruin Penn State’s Rose Bowl hopes. But will it be enough for their own Rose Bowl chances? Michigan State 28-27

Last Week: 3-2 (.600)
Overall: 61-22 (.735)

Check out the standings for all of the BCS Conferences and you’ll notice that even after 9, 10, or 11 games, the races are still unsettled. Below are my best interpretations of what needs to happen for teams to win their conference title, or in some cases get to their conference championship game.

There is a lot of information here so I’ll just give you the Big Ten, Pac Ten, and Big 12 in this post. Later I will add another article with the ACC, Big East, and SEC.

Big Ten

Penn State - The Nittany Lions control their own destiny. A win against Michigan State clinches the Rose Bowl for them.
Ohio State - The Buckeyes need to beat Michigan and have Michigan State beat Penn State.
Michigan State - The Spartans need to beat Penn State and have Michigan beat Ohio State.

Pac Ten

Oregon State - The Beavers need to win both of the games against Arizona and USC to win the Pac Ten. If they lose one of the two, USC has to lose to UCLA. If the loss is against Oregon, then a tiebreaker between the three teams is put in place. Since they each would’ve a 1-1 record against each other…the next tiebreaker is against their record against the next highest teams in the Pac-10. Cal and/or Arizona would have to finish higher than Stanford. That would eliminate Oregon, and Oregon State holds the tiebreaker of head to head over USC>
USC - The Trojans need to beat UCLA and have Arizona or Oregon beat Oregon State. If USC loses to UCLA, the Trojans need Oregon State to lose to both teams…OR in the case of a three way tie…Stanford has to finish higher than UCLA or California to eliminate the Beavers. USC holds the head to head tiebreaker over Oregon.
Oregon - The Ducks best bet is for a 3 way tie. In that case they would’ve beaten Oregon State. UCLA, who would have to beat USC, would have to finish higher than California which would knock out the Trojans. Oregon would hold the tiebreaker over Oregon State through head to head.

Big 12 North

Missouri - This is easy…they have clinched the Big 12 North and will play in the conference championship game.

Big 12 South

Texas Tech - The Red Raiders control their own destiny. If they win against Oklahoma they are in the title game. If the Red Raiders lose to Oklahoma, the Sooners must lose to Oklahoma State the following week. If Tech loses to Oklahoma and ends in a 3 way tie with Texas and Oklahoma, they have to finish the highest in the BCS Standings of those teams to go to the Big 12 Title game.
Oklahoma - Oklahoma must beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Then they would have to hope to finish higher in the BCS Standings if all 3 teams (Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) are tied with a 7-1 record.
Texas - Texas has to hope for Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech, then finish higher in the BCS Standings than Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Also, the Longhorns can go if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, but loses to Oklahoma State…Texas Tech would have to also lose to Baylor and Texas would have to beat Texas A&M.

Quickly looking at the Big Ten Standings, one will notice that three teams, Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State all have one loss and a chance at the Big Ten Crown. Penn State controls its own destiny, a win this week against Indiana and next week against Michigan State and they are Rose Bowl bound. Ohio State needs one Penn State loss, while the Spartans need to beat Penn State next week and have Ohio State lose one of its last two.

Another intriguing storyline is the fact that BOTH Wisconsin and Illinois are 5-5 at this point in the season and still not bowl eligible. Each needs to win one more game to join the 6 others that are already bowl eligible for the Big Ten. This is the week before Trophy Week.

Northwestern at Michigan - ESPN2 12pm - Even without starting quarterback Steven Threet, Michigan was able to pull off somewhat of an upset against Minnesota. Their defense really stepped up and shut down a potent attack of the Gophers. The Wildcats on the other hand got thrashed at the hands of the Buckeyes. In the past three games, the numbers offensively for the Wolverines have picked up and I think we are also finding out that Northwestern might not be as good as their record shows. It’s hard for me to say this, but I am going with the Wolverines this week. I like the way the team is playing, Threet will be back but Sheridan will start. I think the Wildcats are hurting on defense, plus offensively they are on par with the Gophers. Michigan continues to build towards next year with their 4th win of the year. Michigan 30-21

Indiana at Penn State - Big Ten Network 12pm - The last time the Nittany Lions were 9-0 was in 1999, they lost to Minnesota on a last second field goal and also lost their next two games. They are hoping not to repeat that performance. Yes, their national title hopes went up in smoke, but they have a chance to win their second Big Ten title in four years with wins in the last two weeks. Indiana is a team that is just limping to the end of the season. Both quarterbacks Kellen Lewis and Ben Chappell are banged up. The Nittany Lions who were scoring 45 points per game earlier in the year have only scored 36 in their last two. They will exceed that out put in one game which will make for a huge game the following week against Michigan State. Penn State 48-14

Ohio State at Illinois - ESPN 12pm - At 5-5, the Illini need to win one of their last two to become bowl eligible, but even then, fans of this team have to be disappointed. Last year Illinois went to the Rose Bowl, and their season cuminated with a win in Ohio State. This season these teams are on two different tracks. Illinois is winning one week and losing the next. Last week they lost to Western Michigan which had to be a tough one to swallow. The Buckeyes, who struggled earlier in the season, are getting better week after week. Pryor is becoming more comfortable behind center and their defense in their last 4 games is only giving up 6.5 points per game. Ohio State remembers last year and is going to make Ron Zook’s team pay, plus don’t forget Ohio State is still trying to improve their resume’ for a possible BCS Bowl bid. Buckeyes BIG. Ohio State 40-10

Purdue at Iowa - Big Ten Network 12pm - There are two stops left in the Joe Tiller Farewell Tour, first one is this week in Iowa. Last week we all saw the Hawkeyes upset Penn State and made me a believer in Shonn Greene. Greene has run for 1,374 yards so far this season and has yet to be held under 100 yards rushing for a game. It’s no secret what Iowa will do, but the wildcard is Ricky Stanzi. Last week Stanzi looked poised and led his team down the field for the winning field goal. Like Iowa, Purdue has had spotty play by their quarterback. Curtiss Painter has not been half the quarterback they thought he would be, and Justin Siller had a down performance against Michigan State after a great game against Michigan. Against the Spartans, the Boilermakers allowed Ringer to run for over 120 yards. Expect Greene to do that and more. Iowa continues their winning streak. Iowa 24-17

Minnesota at Wisconsin - ABC 3:30pm - The Gophers were held to their lowest output of the season as they only had 188 yards of total offense and 6 points against the Michigan Wolverines in a loss. On the contrary, the Badgers had their highest offensive output scoring 55 points against…Indiana. As I said before, the Badgers need to win one of their last two to make a bowl while Minnesota is looking for the 8th win of the season, which would be 7 more than last year’s total. I still believe in the Gophers offense even after last week’s putrid output. Wisconsin has shown that they have trouble stopping teams with balance, and offensively they are very one dimensional with PJ Hill and John Clay running the ball. Plus I don’t expect the Badgers to get an 185 yard rushing output from David Gilreath, who is a wide receiver, two weeks in a row. This game will be the best game of the week. But again, Wisconsin’s lack of consistency at quarterback will lose them this game. Minnesota 28-24

Last Week: 3-3 (.500)
Overall: 58-20 (.744)

For weeks Penn State fans talked about the possibility of getting shut out of a National Championship Game like they were in 1994, now they don’t have that worry after Iowa crushed the Lions’ title hopes will one swift kick.

It’s funny the range of emotions a fan goes through after an upset win. I was watching the game in a bar in downtown Pittsburgh. Immediately after the game, I left the bar (it was full of Pitt fans who were more happy to see Penn State lose than their team win). The rest of the night I spent in denial. I refused to watch any highlights or watch any other games because there is that chance I could see the winning kick over and over again.

The next day the sun still comes up, and that loss is still there, that’s when you really start breaking down what happened for your team to lose. In the case for Penn State, it was the old conservative nature of playing a road game. You could tell from the first snap, that it was going to be a struggle for the Nittany Lions. Heading into a 30 mph win, the coaches did not adjust, but threw three straight times into the wind. The third one almost (and in my opinion should’ve) resulted in a defensive score by the Hawkeyes.

Daryll Clark did not look sharp, he looked like a man still suffering from the effects of the hit against Ohio State. I won’t question his heart, but his decision making was a little slow and his passes were high all day, which we can attribute to the wind. Andrew Quarless has all the talent in the world, but he still misses key blocks and drops passes at the most inopportune time. The Nittany Lions were inside the 10 yard line twice with 1st and goals, only to come out with field goals each time. That’s where they lost the game!

Defensively, there were a lot of pass coverage breakdowns and why they did not blitz and put more pressure on Ricky Stanzi is beyond me. I give all the credit in the world to Iowa. They were given the chance to upset the #3 team in the country, and they took it. They stuck to their game plan, and made halftime adjustments that allowed their team the chance to win. Unlike their opponents, they played to win…instead of playing not to lose.

Next will be the true character test for Penn State. This week is Indiana, but the following week is Michigan State. Those two games will decide if Penn State plays in the Rose Bowl or is relegated to the Capital One or Outback Bowls. In 1999, the team went into the tank after losing a heartbreaker to Minnesota. So it will be up to the leaders of this team to refocus on the secondary title at hand…the Big Ten Title.